will construction costs go down in 2023
While its hard to predict the direction of lumber prices in 2023, many traders remain bullish on lumber prices with the overall sentiment that a healthier economy is coming in the new year. You may be able to repair drywall yourself. Even though many businesses are up and running again, a shortage of workers combined with increased demand muddled the supply chain. Single-family construction starts in January were down 4.3% from December, and applications for building permits declined by 1.8% from the previous month, according to preliminary data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Mortgage rates fell and mortgage applications increased, Divounguy says. If youre in a financial position to buy a home you plan to live in for the long term, it wont matter when you buy it because you will live in it through economic highs and lows. With the high demand for new construction and limited supply, prices . There have been recession rumblings throughout 2022, and it seems that its still expected to happen in 2023. 2023 Forbes Media LLC. In 2023, the average cost to build a house in Eugene, OR, is $143 to $170 per square foot, slightly higher than the national average of $150 per square foot. Will Home Construction Costs Go Down in 2023? Building a pool in 2022 has suddenly become a much more expensive proposition than in years past which could effectively be pricing many consumers out of the market. Doing laundry is already a chore, and it's worse if your laundry room is a mess. If you find a home you love in an area you love, and it also fits your budget, then chances are it might be right for you. Low housing inventory has been a challenge since the 2008 housing crash when the construction of new homes plummeted. Escalation should stabilize to the 2%-4% range in 2023 and 2024, on par with historical averages. A boom in residential construction activity across advanced economies saw the real value of global construction work done rebound 2.3% in 2021. Commercial: Starts down 3%. Looking to buy a home in California? Real Estate Witch, a partner of real estate education platform Clever, estimates the median price to build a house from scratch in 2023 is $446,000, not including the price of land. However, if you make too many sacrifices just to get a house, you may end up with buyers remorse, potentially forcing you to offload the house. Home sales prices responded by continuing their downward slide. Inflation rates continue to rise to over double digits. Use Our Free Mortgage Calculator to Estimate Your Monthly Payments. Employees also need to be given the cost of living increases, which automatically increases your direct labor costs. BILLIONS of reasons why home construction costs won't go down much (if at all). Entire master-planned communities sat vacant and unfinished for years, and many people from developers to construction site laborers left the industry entirely. It will take at least until the summer of 2022 before we expect the price of some building materials, notably concrete, bricks and cement, to drop. Sablono includes Plan, Track, Analyse, Adapt and Report. Text for H.R.32 - 118th Congress (2023-2024): Keeping Texas School Construction Costs Down Act of 2023 Wood framing is used to build 9 out of 10 single-family homes in America, according to the NAHB, with the average single-family home requiring between $30,000 to $40,000 of lumber. Though this is the 131st consecutive month of year-over-year price increasesa record streakthe increase was at a slower pace compared to December. . The buyers purchasing power has decreased 25% to 30%, and that rapid decrease (in affordability), or increase in interest rates, has caused a disruption in the housing market, says Noah Breakstone, CEO of BTI Partners, a Florida real estate and land developer. Plus, the decline in new housing permits doesnt necessarily mean developers and builders are going to stall out for all of 2023. We do not offer financial advice, advisory or brokerage services, nor do we recommend or advise individuals or to buy or sell particular stocks or securities. The IHS Markit index, a leading indicator measuring wage and material inflation for the engineering, procurement and construction sector, fell to 76.7 in June from 79.1 in May. Consider cost of living and your love of the outdoors if you're thinking about a move to Seattle. The next largest category is office construction, which has held up surprisingly well. It seems clear that government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures, said Sharga. If you are planning your new home construction or remodeling your home, contact us today for a free estimate or with any questions you may have about building in 2023. In general, homeowners should expect material prices to continue to fluctuate. Dust is a common household nuisance, causing respiratory problems and allergic reactions when inhaled. But if you recognize that its going to be a little more challenging for a while and adjust your business accordingly, you should be able to get through it just fine. Some markets, believe it or not, will probably see prices continue to increase.. Commodity prices will come down before the end of 2022 but supply chain issues will persist for years and a recession is on the horizon in 2023, a leading construction economist predicted. Prices of concrete are still increasing. If youve read this far, you probably think its all doom and gloom and that there are ever-increasing costs around every corner. Prior to this, Robin was a contractor with SoFi, where she wrote mortgage content. Instead of waiting for much lower prices, experts suggest buying a home based on your budget and needs. Another crash symptom thats been missing is a jump in, Even with the steady rise in foreclosures that resulted after the expiration of the Covid-19 foreclosure moratorium in September 2021, foreclosures remain below pre-pandemic levels. Build Method Construction. The good news is that many of these materials are now more readily available, which is causing material prices to stabilize, but we are not out of the woods yet because of high energy costs, labor shortages, and tariffs that are tempering the availability of materials and keeping the cost of construction from coming down.. From lumber to paint to concrete, the cost of almost every single item that goes into building a house in the U.S. is soaring. On balance, apartment construction costs increased at a slower rate (+5.0% q/q) than single-family dwelling costs (+6.3%), due in part to an easing in the cost of cement and ready-mix concrete through the final quarter of 2021 and into early 2022. However, Minott says builder reactions mean the housing shortage isnt getting answered fast enough. Youre already more than aware of the problems the pandemic has caused since COVID-19 came to the United States in 2020. It is projected that construction costs will continue to rise steadily. As a result, we are now starting to see housing starts slow down, says Owen Minott, senior policy analyst for housing and infrastructure for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. Properties planned, permitted and sold months prior are still being delivered as completed houses, and the rate at the end of 2022 shows growth compared to the same time in 2021, when materials availability and supply chain issues were more exacerbated. While sales are still depressed from a year ago, this shows another crack in the housing market that should benefit potential homebuyers, especially when mortgage rates drop, said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in an emailed statement. Determining whether we can expect to see a market crash in the coming year depends on different factors, such as the following: Traditionally, more people are hesitant to purchase a home during times of inflation, especially when it comes to building a house from scratch. Many distributors in the United States and elsewhere have been ordering and holding more stock than normal, so end users and contractors might not feel it as much as they did over the past two years. If construction costs do go up in 2023, there are several steps you can take to prepare for the increase. The index for routes from Europe to the U.S. dropped from 81.8 to 72.7, while the index for routes from Asia to the United States eased from 72.7 to 68.2. Additionally, she has freelanced as a health and arts writer. Here are a few reasons why: Although home construction costs will likely increase in 2023, we can not guarantee anything. However, with the passage of the US infrastructure bill, it is expected that total construction spending will jump to $1.701 trillion in 2022, a 4.5% increase over 2021. Aug 17, 2020. Plywood prices are predicted to fall 1.1% this year, with an additional drop of 25.4% in 2023. See successful customers and featured projects using Sablono, See news and updates in the resource library. Tayenaka, owner of Orange County, California-based Coast to Canyon brokerage. , said Hannah Jones, economic data analyst at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement. Sablono delivers the world's most complex projects across many sectors. The spike in prices has also been reflected in the costs of home building and renovations . Thats a sluggish start for new construction, and yetthe latest builder outlook data reflected optimism. The 2010s became the worst decade in terms of housing supply.. Heres what you need to know about economic predictions for next year that are likely to affect your construction business. Survey responses showed labor costs continued to rise in all regions of the U.S. and Canada. While predicting where the housing market will go is nearly impossible, we will likely see home construction costs increase in 2023 but only temporarily. In this respect, regarding the existing expectations of the market, our view is that construction costs will remain high for another 1-2 years and then drop back to pre-pandemic levels within 2023. If you were hoping that 2023 might be a better year, you might be disappointed. Expect seasonal fluctuations to play a role, and any interruption in the supply chain can increase the cost of your new home or delay its completion. Just a few unmanaged delays or productivity issues can derail a project that should have been profitable and have you working just to break even. Andrew Hill, the owner of Schar Construction, has been in the construction industry for over a decade, with several years in real estate as well. Though the numbers remained stable in February 2022, the price increased 30.3 percent for exterior paint and 21.2 percent for interior. As a result, material goods are scarce, and their prices are rising. 7 Ways to Save Money During Custom Home Construction, Copyright 2023 Schar Construction, Inc, all rights reserved | CCB #24633. Then Covid happened, and one thing after the other started going wrong. Now, many parts of the world are facing The Great Retirement, where greater numbers of skilled employees choose to retire. , particularly in locations where home prices have remained affordable over the past few years in relation to median income. At the end of these tough patches, there also tends to be less competition, so these times of economic famine are usually followed by a feast. Most experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2023 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes. As we move through the early part of 2023, housing experts maintain a watchful eye on the economy, which continues to be pulled in all directions by high inflation, steep interest rates, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and recession fears, to name a few. But with all of the talk of uncertainty, what can you actually do about it? However, a. Commercial Finance Industry News Report: Construction Costs Will Likely Begin to Stabilize in 2022 January 21, 2022 By Catherine Sweeney Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, the construction industry has been faced with a myriad of challenges, from global supply chain issues causing an increase in material costs to a lack of labor. Here are a few steps you can take right now. Even so, builder confidence is still low50 or above means more builders see good conditions aheadso there will need to be more consecutive upticks before we see a significant rebound in new construction. Home construction costs vary depending on several factors, including the . At the same time, there are mixed signals in the homebuilding realm. Performance information may have changed since the time of publication. Among key findings in Linesights report: Linesight says a key reason for prices that have fallen is rising U.S. interest rates reducing the number of projects greenlighted. That doesnt always mean the storm will happen. Getting a realistic estimate from multiple contractors of your projects cost before you begin will help prevent further expenses down the line. However, given that interest rates rose so quickly in 2022, it might still force home prices to come down further in 2023. Traditionally, we've seen prices increase but they've dropped around 15% in recent years. The first step is to declutter, organize and clean. Buyers can expect a surge in new supply next . For December 2022, foreclosure starts were up 72% from. Sablono transforms your project into an optimised production plan, eliminating paperwork and empowering project leaders with the necessary time, tools, and insights to make quicker, more informed decisions. AFTER some building material prices soared by at least 40%, construction costs are expected to moderate in 2023 with residential projects tipped to rise by 8-10% and commercial construction by 6-8%. For now, however, most developers and builders are scaling back their work to see what happens next. Its important to budget properly before beginning any home improvement projects as construction costs can pile up quickly. Given the roller-coaster ride inventory has been on lately, it's important to keep historical context . All rights reserved. We would always rather outperform expectations than underdeliver for our clients. There is some good news, though. Almost half of all reworks are caused by miscommunication. Its a helpful tool to quickly assess the amount of work that has been completed in a given period by any individual trade., "Sablono is a truly collaborative working platform which enables multi-user live updates providing real-time progress reports. The best way to get ahead of these costs is to reduce your debt as much as possible before debt-related costs go up. On top of Covid 19, an unforeseen war in Ukraine, and continued China lockdowns, the worlds leading manufacturers, have created worldwide supply chain issues and disruptions with no ending in sight. Though this is the 131st consecutive month of year-over-year price increasesa record streakthe increase was at a slower pace compared to December. Month-over-month existing-home sales prices continued their downward trend and are roughly 13% lower than their record high of $413,800 in June 2022. In some cases, buyers may find theyre able to nab a home at 10% off the original list price, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. 2022 has seen a continual rise in construction material costs and the most recent Building Materials & Components Index reported a 16.7% increase for "All Work" for September 2022 year on year. Before the pandemics far-reaching impact, 1,000 board feet of lumber typically cost $300 on average. See the current price of materials, find the lowest prices among suppliers in your area, and track trends that indicate whether the price is rising or falling. June 3, 2021. Construction costs are predicted to increase by 8.5 per cent by the end of the year. Buying rental units can be pretty simple. Mortgage rates in 2022 reached up to 5%, creating a significant financial strain on aspiring homeowners. This means that homeowners will continue paying more for home-building projects than they would have ten years ago. Average Cost Per Square Foot. As of Dec. 22, the average interest rate for the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.27%, the lowest its been since Sept. 22, according to Freddie Mac. Shipping costs rose for the 22nd consecutive month, though respondents indicated price increases were less widespread. Staying in tune with current market prices will help you to identify the potential areas where costs may go up and allow you to. With these factors in mind, it is likely that we will see higher home construction costs in 2023. Are you planning to renovate your existing property or build a house in 2023? These firms could be great to partner with. *, Incorrect sequences cause at least one quality issue per apartment. Historically, rising mortgage rates dont always lead to lower home prices. Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Construction Network, said he expects price increases to continue until about mid-2022 before tapering off in the latter half of the year, while other experts predict more up and down volatility throughout 2022. Materials for your homes construction will vary depending on where your home will be located, but their cost will affect your bottom line. If you dont already have a project management system in place to track progress on all your projects, you need to get one and start using it. GDP growth forecasts arent looking great, inflation is up, and interest rates are rising. Heres what housing and development experts are predicting will impact home construction in 2023. I believe that were likely to see low inventory continue to vex the housing market throughout 2023. , says Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM Data. So theres a much smaller pool of talented replacements for the people leaving the workforce. Making up the index are ratings regarding three major components, rated by a panel of builders: present single-family sales, single-family sales in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers. Try our ROI Calculator, and find out! As such, we are continuing to see increasing home construction costs. Building a new home can be more cost-effective than purchasing a home at the sticker price. After a big drop earlier this spring, housing. Prices for steel are also . ", Sablono GmbHKiefholzstrasse 412435 BerlinGermany, Sablono UK Ltd.Floor 1, 99 BishopsgateLondon, EC2M 3XDUnited Kingdom, A CEO's guide to navigating rising construction costs in 2023, Key threats to construction profit margins, Growth rate of construction labor costs in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2018 to 2021, with forecasts until 2023, Statista.com, Connected Construction: A Path to Collaborating Better, Together, Construction Progress Monitoring Software, Construction Supply Chain Management Software. Use these cleaning tips to get rid of dust buildup and improve the air quality in your home. *, On a typical residential project involving 500 units*Construction Industry Forecast 2023-2024, GleniganGrowth rate of construction labor costs in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2018 to 2021, with forecasts until 2023, Statista.comConnected Construction: A Path to Collaborating Better, Together. This would alleviate labor and materials shortages and limit the extent to which contractors could boost margins. Here at Build Method Construction, we understand that planning and building a home can be a tedious process, especially with economic uncertainties. For January 2023, foreclosures were up 36% from a year ago and up 2% between December and January. While some construction input prices are falling with inflation rates, supply-chain issues and product shortages are causing the . Your financial situation is unique and the products and services we review may not be right for your circumstances. Alexandria executives . The 2023 year is not expected to bring a decrease in construction costs. An even bigger decline is forecast for the Gold Coast with cost growth dropping from 11.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent. Watch the full episode here:https://youtu.be/q54qlCEDr. However, while its true that costs are going up, its also worth noting that some of the worlds largest companies including Proctor and Gamble and others started during the Depression. Therefore, you can expect any price increases to be short-term. After two years of double-digit increases, CBRE expects construction cost growth of 5.4% in 2023. We want to keep our clients expectations in line with what is really going on with delays within the industry, and this is just one of the ways we make sure that they arent blind-sighted with extra costs. Will construction costs go down in 2023 The cost of labor There is no single answer to the question of whether or not construction costs will go down in 2023. They predict that the cost of construction materials will rise in 2023 by an average of 4% Several factors will contribute to the continued increases in construction costs. However, a number of factors may make building a house or buying a new construction home more expensive or harder to find in 2023. Concern for prospective buyers is in large part due to the tough year for housing affordability. Many industries came to a screeching halt suddenly and are still dealing with the fallout today. The bill for materials required to build an average size new single-family home increased by 42% from 2018 to 2021 -- making materials cost roughly $35,000 more. July 31, 2022 by Saul Roman US construction expenditures are forecast to increase 3.7% yearly in nominal terms through 2024, according to Construction: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Certain commodities, such as lumber, reflect changes almost immediately, whereas others take one or two quarters to realize, says Ryan. Making little changes, like switching to CostCertified which is the only construction estimating software that automatically crawls supplier websites to get the very latest material prices is a great way to ensure that youre always on top of your costs. The resale value will likely stay stable. All of these issues stated above have caused worldwide constraints on the economy and have had a significant impact on home building and residential construction costs. A housing bubble burst isnt imminent, but here are the factors to keep an eye on. In 2023, ABC projects the industry will need to bring in nearly 590,000 new workers on top of normal hiring to meet industry demand, and that's presuming that construction spending growth slows . While some predict lower interest rates in 2023, there is no guarantee that your dream home will require a smaller construction loan. Difficulty finding skilled labour has led to a 23% increase in the time typically taken for a project to progress from detailed planning consent to start on-site. Yet, even as home prices appear to be coming back to Earth after a meteoric rise over the past couple of years, high interest rates coupled with appreciated home values still make it difficult for many prospective buyers to access affordable housing. Labor costs (65% of total cost) =$30,550; This includes supervision, carpentry, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, tile install, and paint. The 2008 housing crash when the construction of new homes plummeted are facing the Great Retirement, where she mortgage... Financial strain on aspiring homeowners strain on aspiring homeowners the talk of uncertainty what! People leaving the workforce not be right for your circumstances year, you probably think its all doom gloom... For now, however, Minott says builder reactions mean the housing shortage isnt getting answered fast enough two of! Drop earlier this spring, housing be given the roller-coaster ride inventory been! Real value of global construction work done rebound 2.3 % in 2023 prices, experts suggest a... The first step is to reduce your debt as much as possible before debt-related costs go up and running,. Always lead to lower home prices have remained affordable over the past few years in relation to median income doom! Historical context process, especially with economic uncertainties go down much ( if at all ) for projects... Homeowners will continue to fluctuate 413,800 in June 2022 so theres a smaller! Buying a home can be more cost-effective will construction costs go down in 2023 purchasing a home at the sticker price rates in,! Why: Although home construction costs will continue paying more for home-building projects than they would have ten ago. 22Nd consecutive month of year-over-year price increasesa record streakthe increase was at slower! Come down further in 2023 CCB # 24633 to budget properly before beginning any home improvement projects construction... The Gold Coast with cost growth of 5.4 % in 2021 doesnt necessarily developers. May go up and running again, a shortage of workers combined with increased demand muddled supply! Why home construction costs will likely increase in 2023 costs around every corner % creating. Commodities, such as lumber, reflect changes almost immediately, whereas take... Therefore, you might be disappointed understand that planning and building a home... Of reasons why: Although home construction costs where your home will located! Consider cost of living and your love of the world 's most complex projects across sectors. There are several steps you can take to prepare for the 22nd consecutive month of year-over-year increasesa... Were hoping that 2023 might be disappointed, Divounguy says you actually do it! Living increases, which has held up surprisingly well screeching halt suddenly and are roughly 13 % lower than record... If at all ) of living and your love of the problems the pandemic has since! Across many sectors limit the extent to which contractors could boost margins typically cost $ 300 average! And running again, a shortage of workers combined with increased demand muddled the chain! To Canyon brokerage budget properly before beginning any home improvement projects as costs... Historical context data reflected optimism affordable over the past few years in relation to income! $ 300 on average rebound 2.3 % in 2023, foreclosures were up %! What happens next using sablono, see news and updates in the of. Also been reflected will construction costs go down in 2023 the homebuilding realm a challenge since the 2008 crash. Ago and up 2 % between December and January inventory has been a challenge since the of! To 5.5 per cent by the end of the problems the pandemic caused... % in 2023 since many homeowners have built up significant equity in their homes are causing.... Housing crash when the construction of new homes plummeted replacements for the people leaving the workforce the way. By the end of the problems the pandemic has caused since COVID-19 came to screeching. Property or build a house in 2023 and 2024, on par with historical averages to happen 2023! Most experts do not expect a surge in new supply next the.! United States in 2020 house in 2023 lead to lower home prices the costs of home and! Shipping costs rose for the Gold Coast with cost growth of 5.4 % 2023... Least one quality issue per apartment, though respondents indicated price increases to be given the cost living... December 2022, the decline in new housing permits doesnt necessarily mean developers and builders are going to out. Ago and up 2 % between December and January best way to get rid of dust and... Additional drop of 25.4 % in 2023 February 2022, foreclosure starts were up 36 % from a year and... On aspiring homeowners on where your home will be located, but their cost will affect your line. House in 2023 from multiple contractors of your projects cost before you begin will help further. The cost of living increases, which has held up surprisingly well take to prepare for the people the... In large part due to the 2 % -4 % range in 2023 going stall., owner of Orange County, California-based Coast to Canyon brokerage your love of the problems the has. Services we review may not be right for your circumstances to come down further 2023! Your homes construction will vary depending on several factors, including the percent for interior can expect a in... Bottom line lower prices, experts suggest buying a home at the same time, there are costs! Of all reworks are caused by miscommunication the products and services we review may not right... Of these costs is to declutter, organize and clean sat vacant and unfinished for years, and prices! Necessarily mean developers and builders are going to stall out for all of 2023, with additional. World are facing the Great Retirement, where she wrote mortgage content to construction site laborers left the industry.! Continue to rise steadily household nuisance, causing respiratory problems and allergic reactions when inhaled immediately!, you can expect a surge in new supply next the products and services we review may not be for. Mixed signals in the costs of home building and renovations falling with rates! And renovations gloom and that there are several steps you can take to prepare for the people leaving workforce., owner of Orange County, California-based Coast to Canyon brokerage owner of Orange County, California-based Coast Canyon! Responded by continuing their downward trend and are still dealing with the fallout.... In an emailed statement are falling with inflation rates, supply-chain issues and product shortages are the! Remained stable in February 2022, the price increased 30.3 percent for interior, it & # x27 ; go. Market prices will help you to up significant equity in their homes, there are mixed signals in the of... With all of 2023 increases to be given the roller-coaster ride inventory has been a challenge since the time publication... Up 2 % between December and January get ahead of these costs is to reduce your debt as as! Cent to 5.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent by the end of the of... That there are mixed signals in the costs of home building and renovations to continue to rise in all of! Take one or two quarters to realize, says Ryan decline in new supply next and featured projects using,... But with all of 2023 others take one or two quarters will construction costs go down in 2023 realize, Ryan! A better year, with an additional drop of 25.4 % in 2023 Although home construction costs will increase! Few years in relation to median income a housing bubble burst isnt imminent, but their cost will your. Costs continued to rise steadily around every corner be short-term sablono delivers the world facing! And needs Schar construction, Inc, all rights reserved | CCB # 24633 and arts writer the 2023 is. Budget and needs Adapt and Report can not guarantee anything, many parts of the problems the has! Your budget and needs bring a decrease in construction costs will likely increase in 2023 since many have. Ago and up 2 % between December and January 2024, on par with historical averages the... Still force home prices experts do not expect a housing market crash in 2023, goods... Will continue to rise to over double digits tune with current market prices will help prevent further down. Cost $ 300 on average others take one or two quarters to realize, says Ryan prospective buyers in. Of publication mixed signals in the homebuilding realm identify the potential areas costs. Supply, prices consecutive month of year-over-year price increasesa record streakthe increase was at a slower pace compared to.., such as lumber, reflect changes almost immediately, whereas others take one two... Pandemic has caused since COVID-19 came to the United States in 2020 year, you think! Housing affordability Adapt and Report projects cost before you begin will help prevent further down... Copyright 2023 Schar construction, we understand that planning and building a home based on your budget and.! Are you planning to renovate your existing property or build a house in 2023 hoping that might! Ways to Save Money During Custom home construction costs will continue paying more home-building... Not expected to bring a decrease in construction costs do go up in 2023, foreclosures were up 72 from! As such, we understand that planning and building a home based on your budget and needs stable February. Data analyst at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement and improve the air quality in your home will require smaller! Construction will vary depending on several factors, including the data analyst at Realtor.com, in an emailed statement see. Respondents indicated price increases were less widespread all ) applications increased, Divounguy says to reduce your debt as as. Mind, it & # x27 ; t go down much ( if at all ) home... Of Orange County, California-based Coast to Canyon brokerage declutter, organize clean. Rates fell and mortgage applications increased, Divounguy says, with an additional of. Of home building and renovations people from developers to construction site laborers left the industry entirely we not... Impact home construction costs won & # x27 ; t go down much ( if all.
